2018-09-13, Expert meeting with bankers: «Results of the year. Forecast 2019»гостевое посещение
The event was attended by representatives of state and commercial institutions: · Igor Tikhonov, chairman of the board of CreditWest Bank; · Vyacheslav Ozerov, Head of Treasury Department, CreditWest Bank; · Vladimir Lepushinsky, deputy director of the monetary policy analysis department at the NBU; · Natalya Tikhovskaya, executive director of Ukreximbank; · Alexey Volchkov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of PUMB Bank.
Vladimir Lepushinsky noted that all national banks have the same goals – ensuring price stability. “No one knows how the economy will develop. The forecast of the central bank comes from the fact that there is some scenario that will come true with a probability of more than 50%. Regardless of whatever happens to the economy, the market must understand what the reaction of the central bank will be in order to achieve this very stability. Thus, certain rules of the game are created in response to the crises facing the economy. For us, the goal is 5% inflation in the medium term. Such a goal banks achieve with a fixed rate. Although this regime is prone to chronic crises, the National Bank in this mode can maintain stable inflation for a long time. And even with this mode, you can keep low rates on credit resources, ”he said.
Vyacheslav Ozerov, in turn, shared the good news: the currency will not go up very sharply. “If we are talking about the hryvnia-dollar ratio in the next month, closer to the end of the year we will come to the figure that is budgeted, on average it is UAH 29.5 / USD. There is a factor of the IMF, which in many respects will be decisive. If we are talking about the course, then we do not expect any sharp devaluation movements that can significantly hit the economy until the end of the year, ”the expert believes.
Natalya Tikhovskaya expressed the opinion that in the sphere of trade we now have a fairly even situation with both exports and imports. “There will be fluctuations, but they are not so significant. In international trade, it is necessary first of all to insure risks, because the market is very unstable, ”the Ukreximbank representative noted.
Alexey Volchkov said that Ukraine has issued a very short loan at high interest rates: in foreign currency it is 9.2 in order to be able to pay off the next debts of the IMF. “We will get another $ 2 billion from the miners from Poland. Inside the country, we are unlikely to find the necessary $ 5 billion. In the short term, nothing will happen. In the long run, non-IMF loans are very expensive, but there is no investment, ”he shared.